Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

Latest forecast update: 7 January 2019

Growth (GDP)

%YoY 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
               
World (USD) 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.5
US 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.0
Japan 1.1 2.0 1.1 2.9 1.7 1.7 0.4
Germany 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
France 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4
UK 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7
Italy 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Canada 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.0
Australia 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.4
New Zealand 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.2
               
Eurozone 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.3
Austria 2.4 1.4 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.2 1.8
Spain 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.8
Netherlands 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.8
Belgium 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5
Ireland 3.0 4.3 2.5 2.4 6.8 3.5 3.0
Greece 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7
Portugal 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.5
Switzerland 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.6 2.6 1.4 1.5
Sweden 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.2 1.4 1.9
Norway 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9
               
Bulgaria 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.7
Croatia 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2
Czech Republic 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Hungary 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 4.6 3.6 2.8
Poland 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.4 5.0 3.6 2.5
Romania 3.1 5.1 4.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.7
Turkey -1.7 -3.3 -1.3 1.8 3.1 0.3 2.7
Serbia 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.6
               
Russia 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.5
Kazakhstan 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.4
Ukraine 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0
Azerbaijan 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5
               
Brazil 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.3 2.5 3.0
Mexico 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.3
               
China 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.2
Hong Kong 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 3.3 2.2 2.5
India 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.8 7.1 6.8 7.2
Indonesia 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2
Korea 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.8
Malaysia 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8
Philippines 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.4
Singapore 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.0
Taiwan 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.2
Thailand 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.8 4.0

*World GDP figure calculated from countries covered in INGF

Inflation (CPI)

%YoY 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
               
World 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9
US 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2
Japan 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 2.1
Germany 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.5 1.7
France 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.9
UK 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.8
Italy 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4
Canada 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0
Australia 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9
New Zealand 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.7
               
Eurozone 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7
Austria 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1
Spain 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8
Netherlands 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.7 2.5 2.0
Belgium 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.9
Ireland 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.7
Greece 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.5
Portugal 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.9
Switzerland 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3
Sweden 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0
Norway 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.0
               
Bulgaria 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.6 3.1
Croatia 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.2
Czech Republic 1.9 2.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
Hungary 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.0
Poland 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.7
Romania 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.6 4.7 3.4 3.3
Turkey 21.6 22.7 20.6 13.5 16.4 18.8 12.3
Serbia 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.7 3.0
               
Russia 4.2 5.2 5.7 5.4 2.9 5.3 3.6
Kazakhstan 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 5.9
Ukraine¹ 9.5 8.3 8.1 8.1 10.9 8.1 7.7
Azerbaijan 9.0 3.4 5.0 5.3 3.3 4.0 5.0
               
Brazil 4.0 4.6 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1
Mexico 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.8 4.6 3.6 3.9
               
China 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.5
Hong Kong 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8
India 3.5 3.8 4.3 5.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
Indonesia 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.6
Korea 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.7
Malaysia 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.6 1.8
Philippines 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.3 5.4 3.6 3.6
Singapore 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.7
Taiwan 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.4
Thailand 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5
               
Oil Forecasts, avg              
$/bbl 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19 2018F 2019F 2020F
Brent 75 75 71 68 75 67 69
WTI 65 67 63 62 65 62 65

Source: ING

Policy rates

(%) 07/01/2019 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F
                 
US¹ 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.00 0.00
UK 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50
Sweden -0.50 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50
Norway 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75
Canada 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Australia 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75
New Zealand 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25
                 
Czech Republic 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00
Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 1.05 1.25
Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Romania 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50
Turkey 24.00 24.00 24.00 23.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 16.00
Serbia 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50
                 
Russia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.25 6.50
Kazakhstan 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 8.00 7.75 7.00
Ukraine 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00
Azerbaijan 9.75 10.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 -
                 
Brazil 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.00
Mexico 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.00 7.75 6.50
                 
China* 1.50 2.55 2.50 2.50 2.45 2.45 2.40 2.35
India 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.00
Indonesia 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25
Korea 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Malaysia 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50
Philippines 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 4.75
Taiwan 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38
Thailand 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00

Source: ING

¹Lower level of 25bp range

2 One week repo rate

*PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate

3 month rates

(%) 07/01/2019 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F
                 
US 2.74 2.84 3.05 3.26 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.25
Eurozone -0.36 -0.33 -0.32 -0.26 -0.25 -0.10 0.15 0.15
Japan 0.07 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10
UK 0.93 0.80 0.85 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.30 1.65
Switzerland -0.76 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50
Sweden -0.36 -0.40 -0.20 -0.20 0.00 -0.10 0.30 0.40
Norway 1.22 1.25 1.40 1.40 1.70 1.75 1.90 2.20
Canada 2.25 2.30 2.55 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70
Australia 1.97 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20
New Zealand 1.97 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20
                 
Bulgaria -0.14 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.10 0.15 0.40 0.50
Croatia 0.25 0.50 0.55 0.55 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.95
Czech Republic 2.01 1.95 2.20 2.45 2.70 2.70 2.95 3.20
Hungary 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.30 0.60 0.90 1.05 1.25
Poland 1.62 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73
Romania 3.09 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.70 3.75 3.75 3.75
Turkey 23.00 24.03 24.27 23.35 21.71 22.02 20.74 17.14
Serbia 3.05 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.40 3.50
                 
Russia 7.10 8.30 8.10 7.90 7.70 7.50 7.30 6.40
Kazkhstan 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.00 8.75 8.00
Ukraine 18.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 12.00 -
Azerbaijan 10.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 -
                 
Brazil 6.39 6.70 6.70 6.70 7.20 7.70 8.20 8.00
Mexico 8.49 8.40 8.30 8.30 8.30 7.90 7.60 6.50
                 
China* 3.13 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60
Hong Kong 2.13 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.45 2.45 2.55
India 6.72 6.70 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.30 7.10
Indonesia 7.67 7.50 7.30 7.10 7.00 6.80 6.70 6.30
Korea* 1.75 1.90 1.90 2.00 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
Malaysia 3.69 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.80 3.90 3.90
Philippines* 4.64 5.60 5.50 5.30 5.30 5.20 5.00 4.70
Singapore 2.02 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.80 1.80 2.00
Taiwan* 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66
Thailand 1.61 1.60 1.75 1.85 1.85 2.00 2.05 2.10

Source: ING

10-year yields

(%) 07/01/2019 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F
                 
US: Fed funds 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
3M 2.74 2.84 3.05 3.26 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.25
2Y 2.82 2.90 2.95 3.05 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.05
5Y 2.81 3.05 3.10 3.15 3.15 3.10 3.10 2.80
10Y 2.96 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 2.90
30Y 3.22 3.30 3.40 3.30 3.25 3.25 3.15 2.95
                 
EU12: ECB refi* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25
3M -0.32 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.18 -0.15 0.10 0.10
2Y -0.63 -0.55 -0.45 -0.45 -0.35 -0.25 -0.10 -0.15
5Y -0.28 -0.10 0.00 0.03 0.18 0.23 0.30 0.18
10Y 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.70 0.60
30Y 0.95 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.20
                 
Japan 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20
France 0.70 0.82 0.80 0.82 0.92 0.94 1.04 0.94
Italy 3.18 3.25 2.75 3.00 3.10 3.35 3.45 3.35
Spain 1.50 1.65 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.80 1.70
UK 1.32 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 1.90 2.20
Netherlands 0.43 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.72 0.73 0.83 0.73
Belgium 0.77 0.90 0.85 0.88 0.98 1.00 1.10 1.00
Austria 0.54 0.77 0.75 0.76 0.88 0.90 1.00 0.90
Ireland 0.92 1.10 0.99 1.00 1.10 1.15 1.25 1.15
Portugal 1.81 1.95 1.85 1.95 2.10 2.10 2.20 2.10
Switzerland -0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.15
Sweden 0.49 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.00
Norway 1.83 1.90 2.05 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.40
Finland 0.58 0.75 0.72 0.74 0.84 0.86 0.96 0.86
Canada 2.24 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.60 2.80
Australia 2.53 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.80 2.90 2.90 3.10
New Zealand 2.52 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.80 3.00
                 
Bulgaria 0.74 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.20
Croatia 2.14 2.20 2.40 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.60 2.60
Czech Rep 2.05 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.20
Hungary 3.18 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75
Poland 3.04 3.20 3.23 3.26 3.28 3.31 3.27 3.15
Romania 4.95 5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.30 5.20 5.20
Russia 8.73 8.50 8.30 8.10 7.90 7.50 7.30 6.70
Turkey 16.77 16.82 17.74 15.18 14.16 13.97 13.27 11.48
                 
Brazil 9.96 9.80 10.30 10.80 10.50 10.20 9.70 9.20
Mexico 9.08 9.10 9.00 8.90 7.80 7.70 7.70 7.70
                 
China 3.34 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.15
Hong Kong 2.33 2.50 2.70 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50
India 7.57 7.60 7.70 7.90 8.00 8.00 7.90 7.80
Indonesia 7.83 8.00 8.00 7.80 7.70 7.50 7.40 7.00
Korea 2.13 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.45 2.50 2.60 2.80
Malaysia 4.07 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.20
Philippines 7.66 7.40 6.90 6.60 6.50 6.10 6.00 5.40
Singapore 2.39 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.80 2.90
Taiwan 0.83 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.60
Thailand 2.67 2.90 3.00 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50

Source: ING

*Apart from ECB refi rate, all Eurozone bond yield forecasts refer to German bund yields

FX

    07/01/2019 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 4Q20F
                   
Euro EUR/USD 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.20 1.22 1.30
Japan USD/JPY 112.8 113 115 113 110 105 103 95
UK GBP/USD 1.28 1.24 1.26 1.32 1.35 1.41 1.44 1.53
Japan EUR/JPY 128.6 126.56 126.50 126.56 126.50 126.00 125.66 123.50
UK EUR/GBP 0.89 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Canada USD/CAD 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.27 1.24 1.20 1.20 1.18
Australia AUD/USD 0.74 0.70 0.68 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.80
New Zealand NZD/USD 0.70 0.66 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.75
                   
Switzerland EUR/CHF 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.20
Sweden EUR/SEK 10.23 10.40 10.50 10.30 10.25 10.20 10.20 10.00
Norway EUR/NOK 9.65 9.65 9.50 9.40 9.45 9.50 9.50 9.30
Denmark EUR/DKK 7.462 7.455 7.455 7.460 7.460 7.46 7.46 7.46
                   
Bulgaria EUR/BGN 1.96 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956
Croatia EUR/HRK 7.40 7.40 7.35 7.40 7.45 7.42 7.40 7.45
Serbia EUR/RSD 118 118.5 118.0 117.5 117.5 117.0 116.5 115.5
Czech Republic EUR/CZK 25.9 26.00 25.70 25.60 25.50 25.40 25.30 25.00
Hungary EUR/HUF 323 325 325 320 315 310 310 310
Poland EUR/PLN 4.28 4.30 4.24 4.25 4.27 4.30 4.30 4.30
Romania EUR/RON 4.65 4.70 4.67 4.70 4.72 4.75 4.72 4.75
Turkey USD/TRY 5.31 5.30 5.71 6.04 6.17 6.30 6.39 6.69
South Africa USD/ZAR 13.57 14.25 15.00 14.00 13.50 13.00 12.50 12.00
Israel USD/ILS 3.73 3.70 3.70 3.60 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.40
                   
Russia USD/RUB 66.35 63.00 64.00 65.00 66.00 65.00 66.00 67.00
Kazakhstan USD/KZT 371.07 350.0 340.0 350.0 360.0 370.0 365.0 350.0
Ukraine USD/UAH 28.06 30.00 29.50 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.50 31.00
Azerbaijan USD/AZN 1.70 1.60 1.60 1.55 1.53 1.50 1.50 1.50
                   
Brazil USD/BRL 3.83 3.90 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.70 3.70 3.80
Mexico USD/MXN 20.28 20.50 21.00 20.50 20.00 19.50 19.30 19.00
Argentina USD/ARS 36.52 39.00 40.50 42.60 44.80 46.50 48.50 54.00
Chile USD/CLP 669 675 675 660 650 635 645 650
Colombia USD/COP 3189 3250 3200 3110 3000 2980 2950 2900
Peru USD/PEN 3.38 3.39 3.40 3.39 3.35 3.30 3.30 3.35
                   
China USD/CNY 6.84 7.00 7.10 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.00
Hong Kong USD/HKD 7.803 7.820 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.800
India USD/INR 70.53 71.50 72.50 73.00 71.00 69.00 68.00 65.00
Indonesia USD/IDR 14292 14500 14650 14600 14550 14500 14500 14500
Korea USD/KRW 1105 1140 1150 1140 1130 1130 1120 1100
Malaysia USD/MYR 4.147 4.200 4.230 4.220 4.210 4.210 4.200 4.100
Philippines USD/PHP 52.56 53.50 53.74 53.93 54.18 54.45 55.00 54.89
Singapore USD/SGD 1.363 1.380 1.370 1.360 1.350 1.340 1.330 1.270
Taiwan USD/TWD 30.68 31.00 31.30 31.50 31.70 32.00 32.30 33.00
Thailand USD/THB 32.71 33.20 33.40 33.60 33.70 33.80 33.80 33.20